Ukwenyuka kwenzalo kwe-Federal Reserve “kuyekile futhi akukaze kume”, imakethe izoya kuphi ngesikhathi sokuphumula?

Emahoreni okuqala anamuhla ekuseni, i-Federal Reserve imemezele ukumiswa kokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo, okugcina ububanzi obuqondiwe bezinga lezimali zikahulumeni bungashintshi ku-5.0% kuya ku-5.25%. Lokhu kuhlaziywe kusenesikhathi.
(Ukuze ufunde kabanzi ngomthelela wemikhiqizo ethile yensimbi, njengeUhlobo Lwenqwaba Yeshidi 4, ungazizwa ukhululekile ukuxhumana nathi)
Kuyaphawuleka ukuthi umhlangano wezinga lenzalo we-Federal Reserve wembule ukuthi kulokhu kuwukwenyuka kwezinga “lokumiswa”, hhayi ukwenyuka kwezinga “lokumiswa”. Kulindeleke ukuthi kuzoba nokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo okubili okwengeziwe okungu-25 basis point ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka. Futhi uPowell uphinde waveza emhlanganweni ukuthi bekungeke kufaneleke ukunciphisa amazinga enzalo kulo nyaka, futhi akekho phakathi kwamalungu e-FOMC owabikezela ukwehliswa kwezinga ngo-2023. Lokhu kusho ukuthi i-Fed ayiyekanga ukuphakamisa amazinga enzalo, futhi kungenzeka ukuthi i-Fed inciphise amazinga enzalo kulo nyaka nayo ibuthakathaka kakhulu.
Ukwehla kwe-Fed ekunyuseni amazinga enzalo kulokhu kusiza ekuzinzeni kwentengo yezimpahla ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa kusenethuba lokukhulisa amazinga enzalo esikhathini esizayo, futhi imakethe isazoqhubeka nokukhulisa ukuphelelwa yithemba kusengaphambili. Izimpahla zomhlaba wonke zisesesikhathini sokushaqeka.
(Uma ufuna ukwazi okwengeziwe ngezindaba zemboni ku-Usayizi Wenqwaba Yeshidi Lensimbi, ungasithinta noma nini)
Ngokombono wemakethe yasekhaya, i-National Bureau of Statistics ikhiphe idatha yezomnotho yasekhaya ngoMeyi namuhla. Phakathi kwazo, inani elengeziwe lamabhizinisi ezimboni ngaphezu kosayizi oqokiwe, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwempahla engaguquki kuzwelonke, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwezindlu kanye nezinye izinkomba ezihlobene kakhulu nemboni yensimbi konke kwehlile. Lokhu kubonisa ukuthi isidingo semakethe yensimbi ngoMeyi besibuthakathaka. Kodwa-ke, lapho ukusebenza kwedatha kubi kakhulu, kulapho izingcingo zemakethe kanye nokulindela kwezwe ukuthi lethule izinqubomgomo zokukhuthaza ezinamandla kakhulu esigabeni esilandelayo.
(Uma ufuna ukuthola intengo yemikhiqizo ethile yensimbi, njengeInqwaba Yeshidi Lohlobo 4ungaxhumana nathi ukuze uthole ikhotheshini nganoma yisiphi isikhathi)
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhiqizwa kwensimbi, obekusezingeni eliphezulu, ekugcineni kwehle. Ngokusho kwedatha evela kwi-National Bureau of Statistics, ngoMeyi, umkhiqizo wensimbi engahluziwe wezwe lami wawungamathani ayizigidi ezingu-90.12, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-7.3%; isilinganiso sezwe esikhiqizwa nsuku zonke sensimbi engahluziwe ngoMeyi sasingamathani ayizigidi ezingu-2.907, ukwehla kwenyanga nenyanga ngo-5.9%.

Kodwa kubalulekile ukuqaphela ukuthi isidingo samanje sesingene kancane kancane esikhathini sokuphumula sesizini, futhi izinga lokushisa eliphezulu enyakatho kanye nesimo sezulu semvula eningizimu kuyakhula kancane kancane, okuzovimbela kakhulu ukwakhiwa kwangaphandle. Ngakho-ke, ukuthambekela kwesidingo esibuthakathaka ngesikhathi sokuphumula kunzima ukushintsha, futhi isidingo semakethe iyonke sizoba “kulindelwe okunamandla” kanye “nesidingo esibuthakathaka”.
Ngokombono wemakethe, ngemuva kokungena kuJuni, intengo yensimbi ikhuphuke ngokusobala, futhi imakethe iyonke iveza imakethe "engebuthakathaka ngesikhathi sokuphumula".
Esikhathini esifushane, idatha ehlukahlukene yasekhaya ye-macro ayikakabi nethemba, kodwa uchungechunge lwezinqubomgomo ezethulwe muva nje lulethe inhlansi yethemba emakethe. Imakethe inomncintiswano omkhulu phakathi kwesikhathi eside nesikhathi esifushane, kanti umdlalo wesikhathi esifushane awukafiki esiphethweni. Amanani ensimbi asesesikhathini sokushintshashintsha okukhulu.