Amanani ensimbi ehle ngaphansi kwephuzu eliphansi kakhulu lonyaka, futhi umkhuba wokwehla awukashintshi

Ngo-Okthoba, amanani ensimbi aqhubeka nokwehla, kanti ukwehla ekupheleni kwenyanga kwaqhubeka nokusheshisa. Ezinsukwini ezimbili zokugcina zokuhweba, intengo ye-rebar futures yehle kakhulu, futhi intengo ye-spot ye-futures zombili yehle ngaphansi kwephuzu eliphansi kakhulu lonyaka.
Idiski yaphinde yabuya ngomhlaka-1 Novemba, kodwa lokhu akusho ukuthi imakethe isizoletha ukuguquka. Ngokombono wamanje, ukwehla kwentengo yensimbi akukashintshi ngaphansi kwethonya lokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo le-Fed, isimo sobhubhane kanye nezivumelwano zezinto zokusetshenziswa.
1. Inzuzo yezinto ezingavuthiwe iphezulu, futhi kusenendawo yokwehla
Muva nje, ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwentengo yensimbi kuholele ekunciphiseni okukhulu kwenzuzo yemishini yokugaya insimbi, futhi ezinye izinhlobo ziye zalahlekelwa kakhulu.
(Ukuze ufunde kabanzi ngomthelela wemikhiqizo ethile yensimbi, njengeIngosi Yodonga Yokugcina Amadigri angu-45, ungazizwa ukhululekile ukuxhumana nathi)
Ukwehla kwenzuzo yemishini yensimbi, ngaphezu kokwehla kwentengo yensimbi, akuhlobene namanani aphezulu ezinto zokusetshenziswa. Kusukela ekuqaleni kwalonyaka, imakethe yezimpahla zomhlaba wonke iye yashintshashintsha kakhulu, futhi amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezinkulu zokwenza insimbi njenge-coking coal, i-coke, i-iron ore, kanye ne-scrap steel akhuphuke ngokushesha, okuholele ekukhuleni okukhulu kwezindleko zokukhiqizwa kwensimbi. Izindleko zokuthenga i-iron ore engenisiwe, yize zehla unyaka nonyaka, zisephezulu kunesikhathi esifanayo ngo-2019 nango-2020.
Njengoba inzuzo incipha kakhulu ngisho nokulahlekelwa yimishini yensimbi, lokhu kuzodala impendulo engemihle emananini ezinto zokusetshenziswa ezifana namalahle okupheka kanye ne-iron ore enenzuzo ephezulu; futhi intengo ye-iron ore yasekhaya yamanje iphakeme kunentengo yamazwe ngamazwe, ngakho-ke intengo ye-iron ore esigabeni esilandelayo izoba yimbi. , amalahle okupheka kanye namanye amanani kaphethiloli aluhlaza anendawo yokwehla okwengeziwe. Ukwehla kwamanani kaphethiloli aluhlaza kuzophinde kunciphise ukwesekwa kwamanani ensimbi.
(Uma ufuna ukwazi okwengeziwe ngezindaba zemboni ku-Izigxobo Zodonga Ezigcina Insimbi Eqinisiwe, ungasithinta noma nini)
2. Ukwenyuka kwesilinganiso se-Fed kuseduze, ukuzethemba kwemakethe kuphansi
NgoLwesine, iFederal Reserve izokwethula ukwenyuka kwesilinganiso senzalo okwesithupha, futhi imakethe ilindele amathuba aphezulu okuphakamisa amazinga enzalo ngamaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-75, futhi kungase kube nokwenyuka okukhulu kwesilinganiso senzalo phakathi nonyaka. Ukwenyuka okukhulu kwesilinganiso senzalo yiFederal Reserve kuzoba nomthelela omubi emananini ezimpahla, amazinga okushintshaniswa, imakethe yamasheya ngisho nezindlu, okuzoholela ekuzethembeni okuphansi kwemakethe futhi kwandise ingcindezi yokwehla kwediski.
(Uma ufuna ukuthola intengo yemikhiqizo ethile yensimbi, njengeIzigxobo Zodonga Zokugcina I-Gal, ungaxhumana nathi ukuze uthole ikhotheshini nganoma yisiphi isikhathi)
Njengamanje, idiski yehle kakhulu eminyakeni emi-2, futhi ukuzethemba kwemakethe kuphansi. Kunezimali ezimfushane zokuzuza nokuqeda izikhundla, okuholela ekukhanyeni okuphezulu kwezikhundla. Esigabeni sokugcina, akukacaci ukuthi imali ingaqhubeka nokubulala ngokwemibandela. Kodwa ngakolunye uhlangothi, imakethe ngeke ize yehle iye phansi ngo-2015.